Aer Lingus vs Ryanair: Who Actually Arrives On Time More?

The age-old question for anyone flying between Ireland and the UK is finally answered with 60 days of real flight data across 18 routes where both airlines compete head-to-head.

The short answer: it depends which way you're flying.

Ryanair wins overall, arriving on time more often on 10 of the 18 routes analysed, with an average on-time rate of 80.5% versus Aer Lingus at 77.9%. But that headline number hides a clear directional pattern: when Dublin is the destination, Ryanair dominates. When Dublin is the departure point, Aer Lingus is the more reliable choice on most routes.

All 18 head-to-head routes

#	Origin	Destination	Aer Lingus On-Time %	Ryanair On-Time %	Winner
1	Malaga	Dublin	78.4%	71.8%	Aer Lingus
2	Barcelona	Dublin	83.8%	76.0%	Aer Lingus
3	Birmingham	Dublin	73.3%	77.4%	Ryanair
4	Bristol	Dublin	81.3%	83.6%	Ryanair
5	Dublin	Barcelona	89.0%	82.6%	Aer Lingus
6	Dublin	Birmingham	95.5%	92.6%	Aer Lingus
7	Dublin	Bristol	85.6%	78.1%	Aer Lingus
8	Dublin	Edinburgh	84.1%	85.8%	Ryanair
9	Dublin	Faro	97.0%	88.8%	Aer Lingus
10	Dublin	Glasgow	73.6%	81.4%	Ryanair
11	Dublin	Liverpool	32.4%	75.1%	Ryanair
12	Dublin	Manchester	87.1%	84.5%	Aer Lingus
13	Dublin	Newcastle	50.8%	81.9%	Ryanair
14	Edinburgh	Dublin	69.0%	77.1%	Ryanair
15	Faro	Dublin	85.3%	59.5%	Aer Lingus
16	Glasgow	Dublin	78.0%	81.3%	Ryanair
17	Manchester	Dublin	75.0%	76.7%	Ryanair
18	Newcastle	Dublin	80.7%	88.5%	Ryanair

The direction-dependent pattern

This is the finding that surprised us most in the data. When flying to Dublin, Ryanair wins 6 of 9 routes. When flying from Dublin, Aer Lingus wins 5 of 9. If you're a regular commuter doing the same route both ways, the answer isn't the same in each direction. Personally, I travel between London and Dublin quite a bit, and have started working this into my travel planning.

Where Ryanair excels: flying to Dublin

When Dublin is your destination, Ryanair gets you there on schedule more often on 6 of the 9 routes analysed:

Origin	Destination	Aer Lingus On-Time %	Ryanair On-Time %	Winner
Birmingham	Dublin	73.3%	77.4%	Ryanair
Bristol	Dublin	81.3%	83.6%	Ryanair
Edinburgh	Dublin	69.0%	77.1%	Ryanair
Glasgow	Dublin	78.0%	81.3%	Ryanair
Manchester	Dublin	75.0%	76.7%	Ryanair
Newcastle	Dublin	80.7%	88.5%	Ryanair
Malaga	Dublin	78.4%	71.8%	Aer Lingus
Barcelona	Dublin	83.8%	76.0%	Aer Lingus
Faro	Dublin	85.3%	59.5%	Aer Lingus

Newcastle → Dublin is Ryanair's standout performer at 88.5%, and Bristol → Dublin is close behind at 83.6%.

Where Ryanair also leads: flying from Dublin

On routes from Dublin, Ryanair still comes out ahead on four of the nine: Edinburgh, Glasgow, Liverpool, and Newcastle.

Origin	Destination	Aer Lingus On-Time %	Ryanair On-Time %	Winner
Dublin	Edinburgh	84.1%	85.8%	Ryanair
Dublin	Glasgow	73.6%	81.4%	Ryanair
Dublin	Liverpool	32.4%	75.1%	Ryanair
Dublin	Newcastle	50.8%	81.9%	Ryanair

The Liverpool problem

The most striking number in the entire dataset is Aer Lingus on Dublin → Liverpool: just 32.4% on-time. That single route drags Aer Lingus's overall average down significantly. Remove it and their weighted average jumps from 77.9% to 79.8%, making the overall gap between the two airlines almost negligible (79.8% vs 80.5%). If you're flying this route regularly with Aer Lingus, the data suggests you should expect to be late more often than not.

Where Aer Lingus excels: flying from Dublin

Departing from Dublin, Aer Lingus wins on 5 of the 9 routes, including some of the margins that will matter most to frequent flyers.

Origin	Destination	Aer Lingus On-Time %	Ryanair On-Time %	Winner
Dublin	Barcelona	89.0%	82.6%	Aer Lingus
Dublin	Birmingham	95.5%	92.6%	Aer Lingus
Dublin	Bristol	85.6%	78.1%	Aer Lingus
Dublin	Faro	97.0%	88.8%	Aer Lingus
Dublin	Manchester	87.1%	84.5%	Aer Lingus

Dublin → Faro is Aer Lingus's best performing route in the dataset at 97.0%, effectively one late flight in every 33. Dublin → Birmingham is also exceptional at 95.5%, a full 3 points ahead of Ryanair on the same route.

Where Aer Lingus also leads: flying to Dublin

On selected sun routes into Dublin, Aer Lingus leads on all three we analysed:

Origin	Destination	Aer Lingus On-Time %	Ryanair On-Time %	Winner
Malaga	Dublin	78.4%	71.8%	Aer Lingus
Barcelona	Dublin	83.8%	76.0%	Aer Lingus
Faro	Dublin	85.3%	59.5%	Aer Lingus

The Faro → Dublin comparison is worth highlighting in the other direction: Aer Lingus at 85.3% versus Ryanair at just 59.5% — the biggest single-route gap in the entire dataset.

So which should you book?

Flying to Dublin from the UK? The data favours Ryanair on most routes.
Flying from Dublin to the UK or Europe? Aer Lingus is the more reliable choice on the majority of routes we analysed.
Flying Dublin → Liverpool with Aer Lingus? Check the individual flight numbers on the Dublin to Liverpool route page before booking — some may perform significantly better than the route average.

On any route, the individual flight number or timeframe matters more than the airline. A specific Ryanair departure might outperform a specific Aer Lingus one on the same route, or vice versa.

The fine print

We analysed on-time performance across 18 routes where both Aer Lingus and Ryanair operate, using a 60-day rolling window of historical flight data updated nightly. A flight is counted as on-time if it arrives within 15 minutes of its scheduled arrival time. Cancellations and diversions are excluded entirely. Each flight number requires a minimum of 30 scorable observations before appearing in results. Route averages are weighted by sample size. Full methodology at routeranking.com/about.